Writing fantasy fiction in a recession
Filed under Market Report on February 17, 2009
Tagged: book sales, fantasy fiction, recession, writing
Is an economic recession a bad time to enter the world of writing? Alex Moore asked this great question in her comment to my reaction to a shrinking market. Intrigued, I decided to do a little research.
Are books recession-proof?
Conventional wisdom suggests that the entertainment-value-to-cost ratio of a book makes it an attractive buy during tough economic times. Families tend to stay home instead of going out, so their purchases shift to DVDs, books and games. Fiction books also provide an escape from the emotional turbulence of a recession.
Bookstore sales figures for the early part of 2008 revealed a 4-5% increase in sales, and the Spring Book Show in Atlanta noted an increase in orders from booksellers. Diamond Books, a distributor of comic books and graphic novels, moved their entire stock. An interesting detail from the sales figures was the drop in hardcover sales corresponded to an almost equal rise in the sales of paperbacks.
I noted several articles on the rise of e-books while searching for 2008 sales figures. Random House reported a 400% growth in their e-book sales, while audiobooks and e-books gained 17% and 21%, respectively, marketwide.
If these numbers aren’t encouraging enough for those wondering if this is a bad time to enter the world of writing, it’s also important to consider the publishing timeline. It can take 6 months to a year for the final draft of a manuscript to go from the editor’s desk to the bookshelf. Many experts are predicting 2-4 years of our current economic conditions. If you’re just getting started on the first draft of a 100k-word epic fantasy fiction novel, give yourself at least a year to get to the final draft. That puts the arrival of your debut within the range of when things are expected to turn around.
Are shrinking markets a sign that fantasy fiction isn’t popular?
Just because book sales in general don’t seem too affected by the recession, doesn’t mean that people are buying more fantasy fiction. What little I did find on sales figures didn’t give any sort of breakdown by genre, unfortunately. There are other indicators I could look to, however.
Closing markets, like Realms of Fantasy, might imply that fantasy fiction isn’t a viable genre. There are other possible explanations, though: a poor business model or a lack of interest in the short story format. The former, in particular, is key to me. The rise of online markets suggests that print magazines will need to adapt to this new medium if they wish to survive.
Another indicator that struck a chord with me is disappearing shelf space at bookstores. I walked in to my local chain store the other day and noticed that the Sci-Fi/Fantasy section had ceded an entire row to the neighboring genre. My first reaction was panic, followed by outrage. When I finally cooled down a few seconds later and gave it some thought, the reduction didn’t necessarily correlate to a decrease in the popularity of fantasy fiction.
First, I learned from my experience with arranging the signing for Maiden of Pain that even chain stores localize their inventories based on regional consumer tastes. It’s entirely possible for that while the Sci-Fi/Fantasy section downtown is shrinking, the same genre section is flourishing in south Portland.
The second factor that mitigates this indicator is online retailers. I’m going to make a broad, sweeping generalization: geeks comprise a large portion of science fiction and fantasy fandom, and geeks like technology. I wouldn’t be surprised if geeks buy more books online than at a brick-and-mortar. I know my spending habits are fairly evenly distributed between the two.
I’m also aware of small press publishers who sell direct via the Internet. Publishing giants who wish to break the industry-killing stranglehold booksellers have would be wise to look into this business model, as well, but that’s a whole other rant. Amazon is the 800-pound gorilla of online booksellers, with B&N and Powell’s having significant Internet sales to boost their physical retail locations. You must take these into consideration before ruling out fantasy fiction just because of shrinking floor space.
Who cares, just write
Whether the economy is good or bad, or whether the genre is popular or not shouldn’t matter. They aren’t factors in why I write fantasy fiction. If you love to write, they shouldn’t be factors in your decision, either.
I’m interested in your responses to Alex’s question. Is this a bad time to enter the world of fantasy fiction writing? Or could it be an opportunity waiting to be noticed?
February 25th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
fascinating research & interesting post…but i’m still going to just take your advice. i’m simply gonna write. it’s in the blood
Alex Moore´s last blog post was Writerly Friends
February 26th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Tough times are not a reason to stop writing for two reasons: 1. Like it or not, life has to go on even if the publishing options are limited. Those manuscripts will still be there when the opportunities are more forthcoming. And 2. difficult times give us a clearer lens through which to understand the human condition. As writers, we are always looking for ways to introduce conflict into story. Well, conflict is all around us. How are you going to use it to make your writing richer?